Fortunes Visualized builds the decision in public, tests the assumptions, and marks the exact point where the preferred path reverses.
Live, visualize YOUR alternatives with Stephen McDaniel
The chart shows the cumulative decision over time, the range of plausible outcomes, and the variable with the greatest power to reverse the result.
Most financial content stops at a confident recommendation. A useful model shows how fragile that recommendation is.
What follows from the stated assumptions today.
The input with the greatest effect on the outcome.
The exact threshold where the preferred choice changes.
The evidence that would make the current verdict wrong.
Each decision has a time path, a dominant assumption, and a threshold that can be shown rather than asserted.
Compare tuition, debt, foregone earnings, completion risk, and the salary premium required to recover the investment.
Where does the degree path cross zero?Model transaction costs, maintenance, appreciation, rent growth, financing, mobility, and the time horizon required for ownership to win.
How long must you stay before buying leads?Compare guaranteed interest savings with uncertain investment returns, taxes, liquidity, and the payment level that changes the payoff date.
Which rate controls the decision?Each episode begins with a real decision, builds a transparent baseline, identifies the controlling variable, and ends at the flip point.
Stephen McDaniel built Netflix’s first business data science team, was Tableau’s first director of analytics, and has spent his career making complex analysis usable.
No shame. No hidden assumptions. No fake certainty. The model is there to improve judgment, not replace it.
See Stephen’s evidence and methodology →